Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to 26N91W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico while a reinforcing cold front extends from near Mobile, Alabama to the NW Gulf. Strong to near gale northerly are over the NW and west-central Gulf sections. In the wake of these fronts, strong high pressure over the central U.S. Will continue to build across the basin today, with the resultant tight gradient bringing a brief period of gale force winds to 35 kt this afternoon in the western Gulf waters offshore of Tampico and Veracruz. Seas with these winds are forecast to peak to around 12 ft. The reinforcing front will quickly catch up with leading front this morning. The cold front will then reach from central Florida to 24N90W and to near Veracruz by early this afternoon, from near western Cuba to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula by late tonight, then push a little more southward early Mon before it stalls. Low pressure is expected to form over the NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward through Wed, dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high pressure behind the front will induce gale force north to northeast winds expanding across much of the northern and western Gulf Tue and Tue night, with the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the central Gulf. Seas are expected to be in the high range with this next event. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the basin due to the expansive area of gale force winds and a large area of very rough to high seas that is expected to accompany this next frontal system.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 03N30W to 03N40W and to near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W and 50W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W and 44W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A Gale Warning is in effect for some sections of the western Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more information.

Both latest satellite and radar imagery show a band of scattered showers and thunderstorms moving northeast along the cold front that extends from near Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to 26N91W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico. This activity reaches S to near 27N. Isolated showers are near the reinforcing cold front that extends from near mobile Alabama to the NW Gulf. Behind the the fronts, strong high pressure from the central U.S. Is building across the region allowing for the advection of very cold and dry air presently over the western half of the Gulf. The gradient between the high pressure and the fronts is inducing strong to near gale northwest to north winds over the western Gulf in the wake of the front. Seas with these winds are 8 to 12 ft. Seas elsewhere W of 90W are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh southwest winds are east of the first front N of 26N as seen in an overnight ASCAT satellite pass and as indicated by buoy 42036 near 28.5N84.5W. Similar type winds are also S of the front and E of 90W along with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, please refer to the Special Features section for a detailed information about the forecast. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of the gale condition affected zones due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas associated with the passage of two consecutive strong frontal systems.

Caribbean Sea

Water vapor imagery reveals very dry air aloft from deep subsidence that is present over the basin. Fast moving isolated showers in the trade wind flow are possible east of about 70W. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades as was indicated by overnight ASCAT satellite date passes across the basin. The exception is in the typical region, that is near and just offshore the coast of Colombia, where near gale- force northeast to east winds exist. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds along with slight to moderate seas exist over the remainder of the sea.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters into the upcoming week, with locally strong winds developing each night offshore of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and downwind of Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the upcoming week. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and weaken across the far northwestern Caribbean and western Cuba Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and building seas will dominate most of the basin Mon night through Wed as strong high pressure builds north of the cold front.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from low pressure located off Cape Hatteras to the NW Bahamas. A stronger cold front is just along the U.S. Southeast coast. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicated strong to near-gale south to southwest winds ahead of the front over the waters north of about 27N and between 65W and 73W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are behind the front. High pressure north of the area dominates the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, with its associated gradient supporting moderate to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft east of the southeastern Bahamas to near 45W.

In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from low pressure well north of the region near the Azores to 31N35W and to near 26N50W, where it transitions to a trough that reaches just east of the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong southwest to northwest winds are occurring north of 29N and between 25W and 45W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned near the Canary Islands. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridging and comparatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is allowing for fresh to strong trades along with seas of 8 to 10 ft S of about 23N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are are present.

For the forecast W of 55W, the strong to near gale south to southwest winds that are N of 27N and between 65W and 73W will gradually weaken as they lift north of 31N going into early Mon. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N through the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the Windward Islands at times. The strong cold front that is currently just along the southeast U.S. Coast will move into the northwestern waters today preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds N of 28N. The front will reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon evening then stall on Tue. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are expected to accompany this front. Another strong cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. Coast Tue night, and reach from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys by Wed morning. This front will be followed by strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas N of Cuba and W of about 70W through Wed. Winds with frequent gusts to gale-force may occur N of 29N W of 77W Tue night.

Posted 1 hour, 56 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre