Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea, Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 00N21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to below the Equator to near the coast of Brazil. Numerous clusters of strong convection are over the coastal waters of Africa mainly E of 15W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 02N and W of 20W.

Gulf Of America

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward to the eastern Gulf. A weak trough is over the southeastern Gulf extending from near 25N81W to 24N82W. No significant convection is occurring with the trough. Otherwise, the gradient in place is allowing for gentle to moderate southerly winds over the basin, except for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the range of 1-3 ft, except for 2-4 ft in NW Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to slide E today as low pressure continue to build over the remainder basin ahead of the next front. Southerly moderate to fresh winds will expand across the remaining basin today, then increase to strong by tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the NW Gulf by Sat morning, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Mon morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the northern basin Mon night.

Caribbean Sea

A weakening frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to over the British Virgin Islands. A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds for most locations of the basin, except for fresh to strong northeast trade winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela, and mostly fresh trade winds elsewhere south of 16N between 67W and 78W. Seas range from 4-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean to lower seas of 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring across the basin.

For the forecast, the tail of the stationary front will start lifting through the weekend while dissipating. High pressure NE of the Bahamas will shift slowly NE through Sun night to support pulsing fresh to strong trades off NW Colombia, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic. Winds will also pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early Sun. Rough seas are expected with strongest winds. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with increasing winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, and from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening.

Atlantic Ocean

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N42W southwestward to 22N57W, where it transitions into a stationary frontal boundary to the British Virgin Islands. Scattered showers are noted along the cold front. Weak high pressure is west of the front. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 27N between 35W and 53W. Seas with these winds are 8-14 ft. Fresh northwest to north winds are west of the front to near 64W along with seas of 8-12 ft in west to northwest swell. Lower seas of 3 ft or less are in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed at 28N31W. This feature covers the eastern Atlantic north of 11N and east of the above described cold front. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are north of 26N and east of 21W. Seas with these winds are 8-12 ft in northwest swell. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere north of 19N and east of 25N, with seas of 7-9 ft in northwest swell. Elsewhere, northeast to east trade winds are of gentle to moderate speeds. Seas are observed to be generally 4-6 ft with these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas are ongoing W of the front between 38W and 60W. The tail end of the front will lift N through the weekend while weakening. Large NW to W swell behind the front will shift E through today. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds again north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of the front and strong high pressure to the north. These winds will support building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast early Mon preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. The front will reach from 31N70W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Tue morning.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era